The Long Term View on Cryptocurrencies
Is crypto a fad or here to stay?
What does the long term outlook of cryptocurrencies look like?
First let me say this, no one (not even Warren Buffet) can predict the economic future of any asset with absolute certainty. You can of course look at the trends and develop a solid understanding of how the market and assets are working (or not working) and make a fairly reasonable prediction of it. So here is goes.
I believe all of the current Crypto 1.0 and 2.0 (this covers the entire ICO/Altcoin offering at the moment) will fold into the Crypto 3.0 and ultimately Crypto 4.0 Altcoins. I know for a fact based on my work in technology and business that digital assets are here to stay and will without a doubt play larger and larger roles in the economic lives of all of us. At the same time I do believe that Nation States will not allow for unregulated, untraceable, anonymous assets to be broadly traded as it would make the collection of taxes almost impossible. It's just a fact of life. They will levy huge penalties, fines on altcoin holders and use other methods to force the average altcoin buyer to leave the unregulated market into regulated Crypto 4.0 alternatives.
- Crypto 1.0 - Bitcoin
- Crypto 2.0 - Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin and other 2,000 cryptocurrencies
- Crypto 3.0 - The next generation of altcoins that will attempt to make coins which can be used easily as currency, less volatile, more secure and more transparent in structure. However, without proper government and financial system integrations w/tax compliance the coins won't last in this form.
- Crypto 4.0 - Government backed Altcoins with all the improvement of Altcoins v.1-3 plus financial system integration and tax compliance. Even though you may not like it, this is the most likely case for broadly accepted altcoins.
Yes. I know there are a lot of people out there who believe Bitcoin or some other unregulated Altcoin will destroy the fiat currency system and become the primary means of exchange but I just don't share their view. There is no logical path to implementing it no matter how visionary you are in your thinking. But hey, I could be wrong. So I'll leave this site up even if that happens and someone writing a book about how it happened can quote me for being wrong.
So where does this leave us? Well the short answer is that Altcoins will be around in one form or another for the foreseeable future but not in their current form. The current Crypto 1.0 and 2.0 Altcoins are essentially proving the market for the Altcoins that will come later. If you would like to understand a bit more as to why Bitcoin for example could never be the dominating world currency check out this article: Is Bitcoin Even a Currency. It will give you some useful insights into what to look for in a valid digital currency that will stick around for the long haul.